When I was a student at Texas A&M, I was fortunate to see a lecture by MIT Meteorologist Dr. Edward Lorenz, an early pioneer of Chaos Theory. From what I remember, the basic idea of the theory is that while some phenomena are random, there are limits to their randomness. However, knowing the limits does not help one in making an accurate prediction of certain systems beyond a particular point. In the case of Meteorology, the limit is somewhere around fourteen days, after which, as one example goes, the flight of a butterfly in South America may affect the weather patterns of the United States.
Given this fourteen-day window, in recent years much work has gone into developing better measurement equipment, like Doppler Radar, and more reliable numerical models to help forecasters warn of inclement conditions as soon as possible. With regard to hurricanes, Meteorologists have a pretty good idea of the probable strength and path of a system, especially as the time of its contact with shore nears.
I’ve been reading with horror of the events in New Orleans and elsewhere in Katrina’s path. Given the fact that everyone knew that Katrina was coming, it is mind-boggling that no reasonable plan was put in place for evacuation of the potential affected areas.
Two additional facts: one, with regard to New Orleans, the city is built, in most parts, below sea level. Any tourist who has passed through the city knows that, as soon as he wonders out loud why they “bury” their dead above ground. Therefore, it is mind-boggling that some are surprised that when a hurricane comes through, there would be flooding – water does not flow upstream.
And two, certain things in the field of Civil Engineering are pretty well understood – how levees work and fail and what happens to a watershed given a particular inflow hydrograph is not a matter of dispute. Since everyone in a position of authority should have known the sinking condition of what was protecting – or rather not protecting – New Orleans, it is mind-boggling that there is shock at what is happening.
What was needed was a swift response – one not unlike the reaction of the FCC Chairman to the exposure of Janet Jackson’s breast during the nationally televised 2004 Super Bowl halftime show.
From a distance, the situation is in utter chaos and here I doubt that there are any limits to its randomness.
Donations to Katrina’s victims can be made through the American Red Cross. Also, there is an excellent article by New York Times’ Jason DeParle on the tragic consequences of the divides along race and class.
the City 